The Dan Rayburn Podcast
The Dan Rayburn Podcast
Episode 64: Analyzing the Future of Streaming: Netflix’s Crackdown and Disney’s Linear and Streaming Strategy
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This week, we deliver fresh insights on Netflix's password-sharing crackdown, analyzing the effects of introducing the ad-supported tier, adjusting pricing and plans and how consumer behavior and engagement metrics are driving their decisions. We also discuss the news around Disney's intention to pull back spending and content creation for the Star Wars and Marvel franchises, along with Bob Iger’s comments that linear TV channels like ESPN and ABC “may not be core" to their business. Learn how these industry powerhouses are strategically working to bundle, package, and license content while keeping their audiences engaged.
Podcast produced by Security Halt Media
Welcome to this week's edition of the Dan Rayburn podcast , the show that curates the streaming media industry news that matters most , unvarnished , unscripted and providing you with the factual data you need to know , without any of the hype , the pulse of the streaming media industry .
Speaker 2Welcome to the Dan Rayburn podcast . I am Dan Rayburn , along with co-host Mark Donningen , who's back , mark , welcome . So a little bit of a break there is . I had to do some traveling , but we are back with .
Speaker 3Good to be back on the mic with you , dan .
Speaker 2So Netflix and Disney . Yeah , it's good to be back and talk about just what we've seen on Netflix earnings , some unique comments from Disney . We've got some more price hikes from streaming services .
Speaker 2Surprise , surprise Every couple months we're talking about . But let's jump right into Netflix . So we all know , as an industry , netflix really leads the industry in terms of being the bell weather . Pretty much every company out there watches what Netflix is doing because of their size and their scale , their free cash flow . Yes , they relate to add an AVOD option to their service . Certainly weren't the first to do that , but they will be successful with it over time .
Speaker 2They actually gave out just a little bit of numbers . So Q2 earnings we're going to break down here for listeners , because there's a lot of information Netflix didn't tell us which we all would have liked from the industry standpoint , and Wall Street really would have liked as well . Hence , it's probably why Netflix stock was down after the earnings , even though the earnings were good was just a lack of insight into their business that they did not provide so from a high level . Here are the numbers Netflix added 5.9 million net new subs and they standard almost just under 239 million subscribers globally Incredible . It is pretty amazing . We're closing in a quarter billion .
Speaker 2Every country you can think of , except what China , Syria .
Speaker 3North Korea , russia , not there .
Speaker 2Russia , they're pretty much everywhere . Now here's the thing they gave out no details , no insight and no numbers tied to the password crackdown , password sharing crackdown . And by no numbers I mean they didn't give any . How many canceled ? What percentage canceled ? How many people added a new member to their account ?
Speaker 1We got nothing .
Speaker 2Now they did say quote the canceled reaction was low and while we're still in the early stages of monetization , we're seeing healthy conversion of borrower households in the full paying Netflix memberships , so that's a good sign . At the same time , they said and I like this a lot , mark they set expectations and they said quote it's important to note that the business impacts of that product experience will roll out over several quarters . So what Netflix is saying is that initially , based on the metrics they use to track what's going on in their platform , they are seeing initial success . How will that be success be defined ? We don't know . It's not something we're going to see in one quarter , so we're going to have to wait and see . They did say that revenue and paid memberships were positive versus prior to the launch of page sharing across every region in their latest launch . So they're saying it's working , but they also cautioned that the full effect likely quote won't be visible for months to come , so it's going to take time to really see the impacts of password sharing .
Speaker 2Now they did give out a little bit of information , which was interesting in that they said they've rolled it out into 80% of the regions where their members are . However , they did note that just because they rolled it out in those regions it didn't mean they were cracking down on everyone , and they gave the example of some users who might be sharing the accounts just on a mobile device . They haven't necessarily reached out to so we don't know the full details of how many they've done this , for they didn't break down those details at all , but they're saying initially it's positive . They also gave out third quarter estimates on net new additions and they said that it should be in the same range as they saw in Q2 . So you're talking around $6 million paid net ads .
Speaker 2They said it would be quote similar to Q2 . They also said they expect revenue growth will accelerate in the second half of this year , specifically as monetization grows from their most recent page sharing launch . So in every way , they're measuring it . They're saying it's successful . We really have to trust them . This is really all we can do at this point . That said , while I did see many in Wall Street who were really good in terms of saying , hey , we didn't really get a lot of numbers here and Netflix is basically just asking us to trust them , let's just use common sense here too . Netflix is smart enough that they're going to set proper expectations with Wall Street . If they don't think this is going to be successful and not just think it but have some data to back it up with they're not going to come out and tell Wall Street to expect to grow based on that from a revenue standpoint . So I think that's important to remember . It would backfire huge .
Speaker 3Yeah , absolutely . And I'm curious , of the nearly $6 million subs , $5.9 billion , how many of those were driven really as a result of this password sharing initiative ? And I guess you could then extrapolate , and we'll know this , over upcoming quarters . But you could also then say , well , okay , is this giving them a little bit of a bump in subs that are , should we say , maybe not quite so organic , because , let's face it , it's a customer you already have a relationship with . You're sort of , dare I say , forcing them into buying another product , ie another subscription .
Speaker 2True , and that's a good point . You bring up Mark because they did reference that a little bit . They discussed how the password sharing if you're someone who's using , consuming sorry a lot of content at someone else's account , they expect you to sign up for your account fairly quickly your own account . But they also talked to if you're someone who's bumming someone else's account . You're only doing it because you want to see one or two shows that haven't come out as of yet , or you're just binging . They think it'll take months or more for that person to sign up for their new account , which makes sense . Yeah , exactly yeah . But the fact that we didn't see a huge cancel culture , like people were predicting , I also think it's important . The way they rolled this out was different . I kept complaining . The way they rolled it out in Canada and the three other countries at the same time was so confusing . You had to set your own location and an IP address and all this Notice . They didn't do that in the US , in other locations . So I think they've learned , which is good .
Speaker 2Now , based on this , we've seen some of the media say that Netflix's success with paid sharing will quote inevitably drive other streaming services to crack down on password sharing as well . That's a big assumption to make . One . Two , it's incredible how many other streaming services cannot actually determine password sharing . I know that's just from talking to them , I'm not going to name them . They spent over a year , almost a year and a half , figuring out a great way for people to take accounts that they're sorry not accounts their profiles and preferences from an account where they were sharing to easily transfer it right . They made the tools available to do that .
Speaker 2That doesn't happen overnight . You have a lot of other streaming services that can't even detect password sharing . Yeah , so this idea now that some of the media are throwing out well , netflix is successful , everyone else will follow suit . That's definitely not the case Now . Arpu in every single country went down . Sorry , every single region went down . Not surprising , though , because when Netflix didn't disclose was how many paid subscribers they have for the advertising service , and they also didn't say what the ARPU was for Avaad .
Speaker 3That's right .
Speaker 2They were pressed on it . They didn't talk to it , so we don't know . It's too early to see what ARPU is going to drive to over time . In addition to this , they also phased out the basic ad-free plan for new and rejoining members in Canada , and then they announced they're doing it in the same in the US and UK . So if you think about what's available here as a consumer , netflix has always been very good at using consumer behavior to push them into doing what consumers want .
Speaker 2So standard with ads is now $7 a month . If you now want to go to the next available tier , which also gives you downloads and you can add one extra month for $8 a month . It's now $15.50 a month . So it's not surprising that Netflix initially told us that in all the regions they rolled out an AVOD model , 25% or more of those subscribers were signing up for it . It's a big difference between $7.15 and $50 . Now functionally breakdown the standard with ads now supports 1080p . It's no longer $7.20 . So they increase the quality . The standard at $15.50 a month is 1080p as well . You can't do downloads at $7 a month . It also says on Netflix website quote all but a few movies and TV shows are available . I don't know what that means and I've not been able to get clarification .
Speaker 3I wonder how that's messaged too , because I have not seen unless I've missed it , dan , when they roll out new content . Now I'm on the UHD plan . In fact I don't know what is it $21? , $22 ? See , that's how bad it is . I don't even know how much I'm paying . I just pay it because you know . But anyway , but I don't see anywhere . I haven't seen where they're messaging like which plan is the content available on ? Now ? Maybe at this point everything's available across all plans and they're just sort of preparing users . You know that there could be movies and TV shows .
Speaker 2But have you seen any messaging ?
Speaker 3Because now , that would be confusing . You know , if marketing , you know , and I see this great Netflix ad or my friends all talking about show , I'm like , oh , I can't wait to watch it . And then you're like , well , where it's not , I don't see it . Where is it Right ?
Speaker 2I'll have to look . I have both accounts just so I can compare them . So I do need to sort through some content .
Speaker 3I see it'd be interesting to see how it's messaged , you know if you can find something .
Speaker 2Yeah , I'll look for that this weekend . It's a good question . I thought it was interesting the language they picked all but a few . All but a few , yeah right , they didn't say 10% of the catalog and I'm sure that's because it changes . But all but a few . Now I haven't heard anyone online complaining with the ad with Avot , only model that like , oh , I can't find a show . So , to your point , maybe they're prepping it .
Speaker 3Yeah , exactly .
Speaker 2But I'll get some clarification that I'll look at it . The other thing which is interesting is if you want to add a member to your account , under the standard plan you can add one member and it's $8 . But you can sign up for your own account for seven . So interesting there how they're pushing people even today . Why don't you just sign up for your own plan ? Smart , real smart . The only difference there is downloads .
Speaker 3Yeah .
Speaker 2So interesting to see what's going on there , how they're doing the packaging Also . Here's another key point . Here is Netflix said their primary financial metrics are for revenue , for growth and operating margin , for profitability Our goals to accelerate revenue growth , expand our operating margin and deliver growing , positive free cash flow . And speaking of free cash flow , they've raised their free cash flow estimate from $3.5 billion to $5 billion this year , which is just staggering . So that's a big deal . Now they did say it's also gone up because the actors and writer strikes will cut down on content spend . But $5 billion . We had Disney streaming services or D to C , direct to consumer , losing over $1 billion and one quarter .
Speaker 3And one quarter yeah .
Speaker 2So , while all the other streaming services most of them over the last 12 to 14 months have been talking about getting to profitability , not only has Netflix been talking about it , they've done it and it's been their core focus of their business , so they're just so far ahead of others in terms of what they're doing . A couple other interesting things that came out was that Netflix said they will continue to focus on engagement , saying , quote it's the best proxy we have for satisfaction and is also closely linked to retention . Unfortunately , they didn't define what engagement is to them , so that would have been nice . Yeah , exactly .
Speaker 3Is that a certain amount of viewing time ? Is it the diversity of program material ? There's a lot of different ways you can look at it right .
Speaker 2Yes , but the fact that they're now listing which programs are most popular . Shows are most popular . What the viewers are starting to give us some information .
Speaker 3Yeah , they are Very different from years ago .
Speaker 2Now on the ad side , they wouldn't answer anything about the ad business except to say , quote building an ads business from scratch isn't easy . There's lots of hard work ahead , but we're confident that over time we can develop the advertising into a multi-billion-dollar incremental revenue stream . And the key word there is incremental .
Speaker 3It's not a replacement for what they lose , it's an addition to and you and I were theorizing this back when the announcements were even made and that this is definitely a lot more than just a mechanism for Netflix to bring a low-cost tier to market and expand their customer base , their subscriber base , which obviously that's a very important piece . But I remember we had some conversations where we were just theorizing with the Netflix brand the quality of the content that advertisers would probably be very , very interested in the channel , the distribution channel that is .
Speaker 2Yeah , so we'd love to know .
Speaker 3CPMs ? Yeah , exactly .
Speaker 2A couple other interesting things that came out . Is they actually talked to pricing hikes . I thought it was really interesting there in terms of what they said , so let me get this right Interesting too .
Speaker 3Yeah , read this .
Speaker 2So quote we're now more than a year out from any price adjustments in our big revenue countries .
Speaker 1Interesting that's because tying into this news .
Speaker 2YouTube announced this week that's raised pricing for YouTube premium . That's right .
Speaker 2That's gone up $2 . If you paid a month family plan stays the same , but the annual plan went up by $20 . And then Peacock is raising its prices in August , so that's going up as well . So interesting for them to talk about price raises . I think that was smart because that was one of the things Wall Street was looking at . Well , if they can raise pricing again this year , how's that going to impact their margins ? So the pricing comments were interesting . Not very detailed , but just even high level were interesting .
Speaker 2Now let's go on to another piece of news they talked about . It was previously reported by the Wall Street Journal and Netflix confirmed they're going to host their what they're calling their first ever live sporting event in November . So it's going to pull celebrities from Drive to Survive , which is their racing series on Netflix , and their similar golf series called Full Swing . They're going to pull celebrities from each of those shows into a golf tournament and that's what they're going to stream live . Now I don't know that I really call that live sporting event . I mean , I get it , You're playing sports , but it's a bunch of celebrities from two series playing sport . I mean , how many people will watch that ?
Speaker 3No offense Now . The shocking thing will be if the F1 drivers beat the golf pros .
Speaker 1That would be a problem .
Speaker 3Maybe they pre-stage that in advance , so there's more people to watch yeah yeah , either that or they need to flip it around and then do like a , like a racing competition .
Speaker 1You know the golf , that would be entertaining .
Speaker 3Yeah , that would accept to have to put him in like some super crazy cars , you know , like I don't know trucks or something they did comment that it would be .
Speaker 2what was the word they used ? It wasn't engaging , but it sounded like they were going to make it more exciting than just a regular golf tournament . They did not announce a date . All they said was this November . So we still need some more information on that Now .
Speaker 2They did talk to sports . They said , quote we really think that we can have a really strong offering for sports fans on Netflix without having to be a part of the difficulty of the economic model of live sports licensing . So for all the people who are still saying Netflix needs to get into sports , right , here's one that says Netflix needs to double down on sports . No , they just told you they're not going to . Economic model doesn't work . They just told you that . Also , they did reference this golf tournament as being quote experimental stuff that we are doing at Netflix . I thought it was interesting . They called that out specifically and again , I thought that was the set expectations properly that just because we're doing one sporting golf event , don't let that lead you to believe we're going to start doing one every week . So we're experimenting on the platform . So interesting there . I really view that event mark as a PR marketing effort for pushing awareness to two series they have on their platform .
Speaker 3Exactly To me , you know , yeah , to me , I think it's super clear what they're doing and yet at the same time they get to test , they get to run some more traffic somewhat significant traffic , I'm sure they'll get on the live platform . The stakes are not quite as high as if you had a professional sports league , you know where . If there's some issues with the stream , then fans are really going to scream . I guess maybe there's some ardent fans of full swing and drive to survive could still stream . But yeah , it makes sense . To me it's a marketing PR and experimental . I think it's a great way to frame it . I don't know .
Speaker 3I think you know sometimes we when I say we , we , as in the industry , overthink some of the stuff too much . You know , it's like we want to draw meaning from everything that Netflix or companies doing and it's like , yeah , there's meaning , they obviously have strategy there's . You know they're not doing it just for fun , necessarily , but you know like it can be like , hey , let's experiment , hey , let's , you know , let's do this marketing PR thing and you know , we'll drive eyeballs to the platform and to the series and we'll get a test . You know , yet again , our technical platform .
Speaker 1I was going to say what's wrong with that . You know like like , like , like .
Speaker 2it's a win all the way around , you know , and and also these are this is content , you own Right . So what is it costing you to produce a golf tournament ? Can't be that expensive .
Speaker 3Yeah , yeah , and they are already paying . You know these various , you know the golf pros and the drivers and you know . So I mean I'm not saying you know there's obviously cost , you know , and it's millions of dollars , but you know they're not having to go spend $250 million to license , you know . You know 10 , 10 games or something . Yeah , and that's their point . Yeah , exactly .
Speaker 2But you know , I saw a couple of people in the media saying look , brands will pay big money to reach sports audiences . Not only that , but Netflix can use these live sporting events to promote their shows and linear channels . Netflix doesn't have any linear channels , yeah , so can we just stop with the linear channels nonsense .
Speaker 1Right , it's like fast .
Speaker 2Netflix has to have fast channels . Why ? Because they added A-Bod . Netflix came out not in this quarter , previous quarter and said when it comes to the business of fast channels , look , we're watching what goes on the market , but we're not going to take our eye off the ball . We're extremely focused on our business right now . What's going to take us a couple of years to build out A-Bod ? This idea that I have to roll out fast channels tomorrow ? It's just that's ridiculous . Yeah , it's not happening . So let's move on to Disney talking about sports because there's some interesting thing came out .
Speaker 2So , mark , we didn't record the week that Disney announced that Bob Iger agreed to continue to serve as CEO through end of December of 2026 . I don't really think that surprised anyone in the market .
Speaker 2No too much work to do and he needed more time to do it . Now a couple of interesting things . He did about a 40 minute interview on CNBC and talked about a lot of things very high level , made some references but didn't detail things . But I pulled out a couple of interesting things here . So one he said streaming is going to become a profitable and stable business . He said , though , we rushed the whole process , is what he's saying . And he said , quote we ended up taxing our people in terms of their time and focus way beyond where they had been . Interesting . Very interesting comment there . He also mentioned that linear TV quote may not be core to Disney , and that was fascinating because then people right away picked up on reading it and up , or yeah .
Speaker 2Yeah , ABC doesn't matter and so apparently there was a in person meeting the next day . It was reported between him and employees at ABC and other places thinking wait , what's going on ? Are you getting rid of this business ? But here's what he said and he's right . Quote we have to be open minded and strategic about the future of these businesses . They may not be core to Disney .
Speaker 2The creativity and content they create is core to Disney . The distribution model , the business model that forms the underpinning of that business and that has delivered great profits over the years , is definitely broken . We have to call it like it is . That's part of the transformative work that we're doing . So I mean he's coming out making it clear we know what's happening with TV distribution model , so it may not be core . Does that mean that it's not important ? He didn't say it wasn't important . He didn't say he was cutting it tomorrow . He just said it may not be core . He also said they're going to do pullback and content spending and creation for the Star Wars and Marvel franchises . Thought that was interesting . He commented you can read more . But he commented and said that the explosion of Marvel TV shows in recent years quote diluted focus and attention for the brand .
Speaker 3Interesting .
Speaker 2He can't just turn that stuff out one after the other and expect it to be successful .
Speaker 2Now , when it came to ESPN , he said that they were talking about bringing in a strategic partner . That was the term he used , but he didn't elaborate on what that meant . But he did say a strategic partner could bring additional value with distribution or with content . He also acknowledged selling a stake in the business was possible . Now it was reported today that they've already had conversations with the NFL , the NBA , major League , baseball , about one of those or multiple of those sports leagues taking a stake in ESPN . Now that makes sense because they would get distribution , but they would also get guaranteed content . Don't know what the business model of financials would be for that , but he did acknowledge selling a stake in the business was possible . Now , for listeners that don't know , disney doesn't own 100% of ESPN . They own 80% , with Hurst owning the other 20% . So if you brought in a sports league or multiple sports league whatever sports league that is you know you're going to have access to their content . It's guaranteed . At the same time , they're going to be able to help with distribution . They have a larger platform .
Speaker 2I also keep hearing rumors I use the term rumor from people inside Disney that there's still a larger conversation going on between Disney and Apple about Apple potentially licensing some of Disney's content for Apple TV+ but then also turning around and then Apple could do distribution for Disney content , which would save Disney a lot of money , which is obviously one of the things they're still trying to do . So they've got to get to streaming to profitability . That is going to take time . The latest , what was the latest time frame ? They told us that they expect the DTC business to be profitable by fiscal year and the fiscal 2024 . I believe that's what it is .
Speaker 3That's the latest . That's right , because they moved that up one year . It was originally 2025 and I remember they moved it up a year .
Speaker 2Now Disney's earnings are on August 9th , so we still have another . Well , by the time you're listening to this , let's call it two weeks before Disney's earnings and I have a feeling we'll get a little more clarity on that . But , man , disney's earnings are going to be very interesting because now he's mentioned core TV assets . He's mentioned ESPN , he's mentioned content and what they're doing . He's mentioned focusing on profitability . Disney's also renewed his contract . The Disney earnings calls should be pretty fascinating , even if they only talk things from a high level .
Speaker 3Yeah , that's right .
Speaker 2So I was thinking , mark , just if you think of the last two , three years of our industry , it's incredible how much additional insight we now get into the business . Most of these companies would talk high level numbers , maybe get ARPU from some , but think about every single Netflix or Disney call now , every quarter . We're getting so much out of it and we're seeing a little bit behind the curtain of what they're thinking about the business models . Because could you imagine Disney , even two years ago , coming out and publicly saying , hey , linear channels may no longer be core to us .
Speaker 3They may not be core yeah .
Speaker 2Maybe we get out of that business . Yeah Well , let's just strive to profitability , let's not focus on growth as much . So it's incredible . Obviously , covid obviously had a huge impact on that as well , which was , unfortunately , that's what it took to disrupt their business . But to hear him also talk about just the challenges he also said when he came back he said things are a lot more challenging than he was expecting . This is harder than he was expecting . And then he's also talking about , hey , maybe we worked our employees too much , so to speak . Those are my words . Those are a lot of interesting things .
Speaker 2So I recommend anyone who didn't see the interview go on CNBC . Just type Bob Iger interview , cnbc . It's 40 minutes long . Now CNBC chops it up into eight different videos . You might have to watch them all like that let's hear a CNBC member , but some of the parts are real interesting . Some of the others are just kind of fluffy and high level , but if you're in the industry , you'll have to watch that , because what Netflix and Disney do , a lot of others follow , especially when we're talking scale . So , mark , that's what we got this week . Couple other , just quick things I've seen . Please do not get me started on more YouTube TV outages . But while we didn't record in those two weeks , they had an issue with ESPN , specifically in multiple cities , which they did come out and acknowledge . Hey , for 30 minutes we had a problem . But man , I'm starting to get real worried about this . Well , I've been real worried for months about the NFL Sunday tickets coming up right . We're already the end of July here and that's coming in September .
Speaker 2So that's going to be super interesting to watch . We also have had some I would say , expected interesting news that will come out in the next two weeks . Between , just from an earnings standpoint . We're going to have Roku next week . Tom Caslow gives everything on Peacock Meta , which is interesting only because I want to see what they're talking about in terms of video on the platform . We usually get something from that . Then we've got the week after that . We have a lot of vendors Vimeo , Braco , Fastly , Kaltura , Cloudflare , and then , as we go into August , we've got Disney , Paramount , Vizio , Staying there , obviously on the ad side with Arpu . So I've got about another two weeks of earnings and I expect we should have some much better numbers as far as what we're seeing trend-wise regarding Arpu's the ad side , because some of those are giving us certainly the ad side . Google I have to look up Google . I actually don't have it on my calendar , but I'm curious if we're going to get anything from Google on YouTube .
Speaker 2I'm guessing no , we don't get anything but the fact that they raised pricing on premium . They do usually give out the number of subscribers they have for the premium service , which includes music in it , but we should get some pretty good data in the next two weeks on other aspects of the business and where exactly it's going , which we need to continue to follow closely . So , mark , that's what we got this week . Finally , I'll just close out with saying , by the time you're listening to this , the NAB has officially announced the NAB Streaming Summit this year at the NAB show . I know I've mentioned it a few times coming to New York in October , but it's now officially up . Sites up . Tickets are up . Call for speakers is up . October 24th and 25th . Tuesday , wednesday , javits Center . I'll be running two days , at least one track , maybe two , depending on how many proposals come in .
Speaker 2So , anyone listening , you have questions , hit up NABStreamingSummitcom , reach out to me . I'm definitely looking for proposals now . It's going to be a combination of technical presentations , case studies from end users , some round tables and , mark , we're going to add also a little bit this year on AI . I've been looking at some AI startups I think are doing some interesting things , not the traditional AI that I've seen , so a little bit in AI . We're going to add some additional topics this year that I haven't covered too much in the past . It's not going to be like , hey , let's have successions on blockchain . We won't have any on blockchain , but some of the new technology coming out on the AI , some of it looks interesting for discoverability analytics two of the biggest problems I think we have in the market discoverability and analytics . So should be interesting .
Speaker 2But right now I'm open to any and all suggestions . Now's the time to get them in . You want to moderate a case study you want to put forth ? Now's the time to reach out to me . So Mark and I will be back next week . We're back on a regular podcast schedule for the next three weeks , which is nice before it bounce out and start traveling again . But you have questions anytime , reach out . Everything we talked about today with Netflix and Disney is up on LinkedIn . You can see that on my LinkedIn , for sure . But any questions reach out to Mark and I . We appreciate everyone listening , everyone . Have a good rest of the week and we will talk to you in the next podcast .
Speaker 1If you enjoyed the show , send it to a friend , have questions for Dan or Mark , connect with them on LinkedIn at any time , and be sure to check out Dan's blog at streamingmediablogcom .