The Dan Rayburn Podcast
The Dan Rayburn Podcast
Episode 133: New Ad Tier User Numbers; FOX and ESPN DTC News; YouTube Gets Exclusive NFL Game
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This week, we cover the news from the Upfronts, with Netflix and Amazon announcing updated ad-tier user numbers, YouTube disclosing ad conversions on Shorts, and some of the new ad formats coming to OTT platforms. We also detail the upcoming DTC offerings from ESPN and FOX, as well as YouTube's plans to stream an exclusive NFL game for free in September. Finally, we highlight Charter's announcement of its plans to acquire Cox Communications, Warner Bros. Discovery's rebranding of Max to HBO Max this summer, and Sony's announcement of updated subscriber numbers for Crunchyroll.
Podcast produced by Security Halt Media
Welcome to this week's edition of the Dan Rayburn podcast, the show that curates the streaming media industry news that matters most, unvarnished, unscripted and providing you with the factual data you need to know, without any of the hype, the Pulse of the streaming media industry.
Speaker 1Welcome to the Dan Rayburn podcast. I am Dan Rayburn, back rocking and rolling on Friday, may 16th. Go host Mark Donegan Got some interesting news to cover this week. From the ad fronts, we got some numbers which was cool from Netflix, youtube, amazon, which we didn't have before they're updated, so that's great. Also, from NBCU, we got some numbers there. We've got the new Disney disney d2c service called espn, with some more details there. Uh, fox's d2c service we have some details on that. Uh, let's see what else. Uh, charter and cox talking about merging those two companies, wbd rebranding back to hbo max.
Speaker 3That's pretty I think that makes sense.
Speaker 1Actually it does you know, it totally does.
Speaker 3Hbo is such a great brand, you know yeah it, it does.
Speaker 1Uh first mark real important. Let me just hit top of the podcast here. Correction, my apologies to fastly. When we covered earnings a week or two weeks ago I said fastly, stock was flat. After earnings actually was up 30 percent.
Speaker 3So thank you for someone we usually catch that kind of stuff, so it's pretty rare we do.
Speaker 1But when I looked at the chart I think I was looking at the month and it was flat and not since earnings. So thanks to someone at Fastly who reached out. An employee was just like hey, our stock went up.
Speaker 2I was like thank you, by the way.
Speaker 1Yeah, so I put a correction up on on the link to the podcast in in linkedin. So it, uh it was up almost 30 percent. Uh. So, mark, let's jump into upfront news here. So we had upfront news from from quite a few companies I think it was 12 to 13 different companies.
Speaker 1But the vast majority of upfront news was really two things. It was hey, we're launching new ad formats, a lot of them being just pause ads during pausing of streams and other things. So we're not going to go into all those formats. We'll see what ones actually work and stick and whatnot. And then we also had a lot of news just around content and series. Here are new pieces of content series, documentaries, whatnot coming, and we don't cover that in the podcast, but we will cover here the numbers that matter, because we did get some new numbers here.
Speaker 1So during Netflix upfront presentation, the president of their advertising business said that the company's now reached 94 million global MAUs for their ad tier. So this is up from 70 million MAUs announced in November. Now, keep in mind that's monthly active users. That is not accounts, that is not households, that's not any other. Well, it would be paid members because it's the ad tier, but also notice that it's monthly active users. It doesn't actually even say subscribers. So just be real careful here if you're reusing that number in the industry in any way. It's monthly active users.
Speaker 1A couple other things here that Netflix said regarding the ad tier members is that they spend 41 hours per month on Netflix on average in the US and they said members pay as much attention to mid-roll ads as they do the shows and movies themselves in terms of how they're measuring engagement. Okay, interesting, so updated number there. We'll keep an eye on that as they do the shows and movies themselves in terms of how they're measuring engagement. Okay, interesting, so updated number there. We'll keep an eye on that. A little bit of news from YouTube. Ceo said that shorts, which is obviously their Tik TOK, you know style, short form video product. They said it's. He said it's reached parody on revenue per watch hour relative to core YouTube in multiple countries, including the US.
Speaker 1But, he didn't give us a number, so interesting to say it's on parity, reached parity, but without numbers, it's little unknown what exactly that means. Yeah, they also said at their event, which they call Brandcast, that CTV campaigns now drive more than 50 million conversions per month on average, and he said that equals out to a four and a half time higher return on ad spend than ads placed on streaming TV. What I didn't know there, though, is what are you defining as streaming TV, because isn't that YouTube? Yeah, I don't know there, though, is what are you defining as streaming TV, because isn't that?
Speaker 1YouTube. Yeah, I don't know. So a little confusing, didn't really know what the definitions were. Everyone's definition of TV is different these days. To begin with, it is.
Speaker 1But that's all we got from YouTube. Nothing else. Numbers wise. Many of us, I'm sure, in the industry were hoping they'd give out a new YouTube TV subscriber number, but we did not get that. They did not discuss that at all.
Speaker 1We got a little bit of information here from NBCU. They said that Peacock was built on sports. It'll have 75 hours of sports in the next year. 70% of all programming across NBC is live. Some numbers on engagement they say live content on Peacock is shown to deliver 21% more engagement for advertisers. I don't think anyone's surprised by that, especially a lot of live sports. Peacock will stream an exclusive NFL game on Saturday December 27th and we also know that Peacock I shouldn't say peacock mbc sports, of which peacock as well will will be a part of the next super bowl 2026. We don't yet know if that'll be free or behind a paywall. Mbc sports peacock, don't know. At some point we'll get some more information on that.
Speaker 1Let's go to amazon prime. We have some new numbers on Prime. So Amazon said the Prime video, the ad tier, specifically reaches more than 130 million US customers. The last number we got from them last year was 115 million and keep in mind again, this is not how many Prime subscribers they have. That's right. We don't know. They haven't publicly updated that number since 2021, when they said it was over 200 million. Prime's AVOD service is going to launch in Brazil, india, japan, netherlands and New Zealand this year, so it continues to roll out.
Speaker 1Amazon announced three new CTV ad formats. So pause ads that they're saying are relevant, based on AI figuring out what ad they should deliver based on what the scene is. You're pausing it in. I thought that's kind of interesting. I don't know that one necessarily relates to the other, though Shoppable ads for products on Amazon specifically, then shoppable ads for products off Amazon. So you know, interesting that they're talking about using AI to ensure the ad is relevant to the show or movie in the middle of what you're doing. But the example they gave was OK, if there's two people kissing, we'll show Hershey kisses and it's like OK. But how is that relevant if I don't eat chocolate or candy?
Speaker 3Yeah, exactly that's funny.
Speaker 1Why not go to my preference of what I've put in my shopping cart and acquired?
Speaker 3Yeah, so I didn't really. They have so much data.
Speaker 1Yeah, they have everything, so I didn't quite understand that.
Speaker 3So, dan, you skipped over the fact that Netflix also introduced a new modular framework for ad formats.
Speaker 1I did, so did Tubi, so did NBCU. I figured we're not going to go through every new ad formats. I did so did Tubi, so did NBCU. I just figured we're not going to go through every new ad format.
Speaker 3Well, no, no, no, no. The only reason yeah, we don't need to, but it's just interesting because if you read the Netflix kind of description, it's kind of it's kind of the same thing. They're using AI, generative AI. It's going to be like mid-roll generative ai. Um, it's going to be like mid-roll, um, you know, it's going to give them the ability to personalize and, uh, I didn't actually see a demo um, I didn't either, but they said there that they're targeting based on the user right personalization, which I think, is smart, correct, correct.
Speaker 1But then you know amazon's going to not personalize it based on you, but based on the frame of that you stopped it on yeah, I don't. I don't see how that's personalized for me. Yeah, so just just odd, and I wonder okay, if you're in the middle of watching an action movie and you pause it during a battle scene, they're? Not gonna show a gun, right, so yeah, so what are they gonna pick during that? I don't, I don't know. Yeah, so interested to see how this works and what's really behind it.
Speaker 1Yeah, going on here, let's see what else do we have. Well, no, okay, so we're done with that. Let's go into Disney here. So Disney announced the details of its DTC offering called ESPN. It's coming early fall still no date. It's going to offer two subscription plans and bundling options. So the unlimited plan is $30 a month or $300 for the year. Its select plan costs $12 per month or $120 for the year. They are going to have it launch a special bundle for $30 for the first 12 months of ESPN, disney+ and Hulu.
Speaker 1Now, two differences here just ESPN Unlimited and the Select plan. The ESPN Unlimited plan is going to include all its linear networks, everything ABC. It's also going to include ESPN+, espn2, all that stuff. The select plan is going to give subscribers access to all the content on ESPN Plus and they can get a bundle of Disney Plus, hulu, espn for $17 a month with ads. So is there going to be some confusion here? Absolutely there is. However, I like the fact that they are now going to have ESPN and ESPN+. At least. You just really have two brands there that can be bundled and packaged in different ways. So how they explain this we will see.
Speaker 1Now the other thing they say is based on the current subscription level. Now, the other thing they say is based on the current subscription level existing ESPN Plus subscribers will automatically become subscribers to ESPN Plus's new service Sorry, espn's new service. Standalone ESPN Plus subscribers will get the ESPN Select plan. Disney Plus, hulu plus ESPN Plus bundle, get the ESPN Select bundle. So naturally we're all asking ourselves well, over time, does ESPN plus go away and it's just replaced by ESPN, with two options potentially.
Speaker 1But look, this thing hasn't even launched in the market. So all the people speculating what they're going to do and get rid of it and branding it's really kind of a waste of time. Disney did say at launch, espn will introduce a series of enhancements to the ESPN app on mobile and connected TV devices, but they weren't willing to detail or discuss what those enhancements are. Let's go on to YouTube. So YouTube is the official winning bidder to stream the NFL game from Brazil on September 5th. What's different here is some people were reporting this wrong mark. It will be free, it will be, on youtube main.
Speaker 1They have the global rights to the game. However, it won't stream in canada since the nfl has an existing deal with with bell canada for streaming. Got it. It will be blacked out. They said in quote a few other countries. They didn't list what those countries were. The matchup should be interesting here. Also, per the NFL's broadcast policy, all games are always available on broadcast TV in the local markets of each team OTT. So this will also be an OTT as well. Now I can confirm two things from here regarding this is YouTube will not use any third party CDNs. They will be delivering this across their own infrastructure and they will not repeat not doing it, for Don't have any bitrate information as yet what the max is going to be and whatnot, but it's, it's definitely not for it.
Speaker 3I can tell you that.
Speaker 1Let's go to Fox. So Fox announced the name of its upcoming DDSG uh streaming service called Fox One. Here's another one that says it'll launch in the fall, whatever that means, but ahead of NFL and college football seasons it gives us a little more timing.
Speaker 1Uh, it'll have live streaming and on-demand access to the full portfolio of Fox brands and an option to bundle in fox nation as well. Uh, no details on pricing, so we don't know the cost here. Cable tv subscribers will get access to the service at no cost as long as they authenticate. Fox made it very clear they're not trying to get people to cut the cord and they're also not trying to make mad. The deals they have, carriage deals, they have with MVPDs. So very smart.
Speaker 3This seems like a TV, just a revitalization, reviving a TV everywhere.
Speaker 1It really is, except it's like oh, but if you don't have TV you can also.
Speaker 3Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1So I like the approach. Now we don't have the pricing, so if the pricing is out of whack, okay, maybe that doesn't make sense, but I don't think it will be. Fox is taking a very deliberate, smart approach here, so not surprised Wish we had the pricing, but not yet. Now during the earnings call they talked a little bit about Tubi.
Speaker 3It's going to be sold off right.
Speaker 1Oh God yeah.
Speaker 3I don't know where that came from. Well, I do know where it came from, but so Fox?
Speaker 1said Tubi is a very good business, yeah, but he said at the same time, it doesn't get the recognition from investors that he thinks it should on Wall Street. So he said at the same time, it doesn't get the recognition from investors that he thinks it should on Wall Street. So he said, quote the only frustrating part about the business is that we don't get appropriate valuation within our stock. We think it's a tremendously valuable business and we're looking forward to outperforming with 2B for years to come. Now somebody in the industry immediately said well, there's rumors that Tubi will now be sold. There's not a single rumor of Tubi being sold. There's not a single media company that published an article about that. Every single note I saw from institutional money manager on Wall Street not a single one talking about earnings and anything about Tubi being sold off. So there is no rumor. So the person in the industry who's like there's a rumor, there's no rumor and you have no source for that yeah, or your source is wrong.
Speaker 1They don't have source, because they didn't even mention where it came from or linked to anything.
Speaker 2Yeah.
Speaker 1In addition, there was one media outlet that said because Fox's CEO says that Tubi is not getting the value reflected in the stock price, they're saying that suggests a possible future spinoff. Well, his comments weren't talking about a spinoff. Now could a spinoff happen? Sure, I'm not saying it won't, but you cannot just take hey, we don't like the valuation. We're getting a Wall Street.
Speaker 1And all of a sudden the company's now thinking about a spinoff. So just you know, chill out here. Yeah, let's go to Charter. So Charter announced it would buy privately held Cox. It came out this morning, on Friday May 16th for $21.9 billion.
Speaker 1So this is a cash and stock deal. You got to look at the press release for all the breakdown, the details. We're not going to go through it all, but Charter is going to assume Cox is about $12.5 billion in net debt and other obligations they have. It puts this deal in enterprise value of about $34.5 billion. Cox Enterprise would own about 23% of the merged company and the firm would rebrand as Cox Communications within a year of the deal close, with charter spectrum becoming the consumer facing brand in Cox markets.
Speaker 1So okay, on paper this all makes sense. They say they're going to save $500 million, you know, just by combining two companies and whatnot. But so, mark, here's the thing I don't get. In every single telecommunications merger we've ever seen announced, even the ones that haven't gone through, they always say we expect this to close X number of months or years pending regulatory approval. In their press release they don't mention regulatory approval anywhere. Yeah, there's not a single line, and I don't know why that is and I don't know if it's well because Cox is small it's six and a half million subs. Whatever it may be, maybe they're too small where it doesn't need regulatory approval, but they're both telecom companies and we've seen everything get looked at from a regulatory standpoint with mergers, so I don't know what the fact, what that means when there's no reference.
Speaker 3Well, Lena Kahn is out, so that helps.
Speaker 1Yeah, I don't know if it's hey, we think I just wonder.
Speaker 3I just wonder, dan, if if it's a little bit of a different situation because you know each region there is a license right for the cable companies to operate so Cox buying Charter. It doesn't create any competitive barrier.
Speaker 3Charter's buying Cox, charter buying Cox. Yeah, sorry, it doesn't create any competitive barrier. In other words, the only difference is, I mean, again, there's the synergies of the. You know there's the business synergies, but I mean the difference is is that you know the brand would change. Maybe on my bill Although, yeah, I mean it would change. You know it's going to be. It's going to be Cox rebranded as Cox. Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1And also no one seems to have any quotes today from the doj or ftc yeah which is also interesting and keep in mind for those who don't know. You know, the ftc has authority over a lot of sectors yeah, the doj has sole antitrust jurisdiction over industries like total communications, so mergers between carriers are reviewed by both FCC in regard to Actually, three agencies.
Speaker 3Right, It'd be.
Speaker 1FCC DOJ FTC.
Speaker 3FTC and the DOJ, oh, oh.
Speaker 1Well, the FCC reviews Wouldn't the FCC get?
Speaker 3involved.
Speaker 2They would Well there's a difference.
Speaker 3They would comment, probably, or be consulted let me think about this.
Speaker 1Fcc reviews mergers between common carriers. The ftc's involvement telecommunications is limited to cable and mass, what they call mass media mergers. But well, this is cable. Yeah, I don't know, I'm not a lawyer. Anyway, yeah, yeah, we're, we're not, we're not but what we're saying?
Speaker 3but what we're saying is it is a slightly odd that there's no mention of regulatory approval, or you know yeah, I just, I don't, I don't see it mentioned anywhere.
Speaker 1And, um, you know, I'm not going to go by this Google AI thing who's now telling me you know antitrust enforcement, because but I just, I keep looking here and there's just nothing tied to anybody saying anything about this, which is just odd to me, because if you think of every other merger we've seen, even announced before, they're quick to say in their filing yeah, exactly Ending regulatory approval yeah, yeah, subject to Right.
Speaker 3They're quick to say in their filing yeah ending regulatory approval. Yeah, yeah, subject to right.
Speaker 1So I just it really stuck out to me, so I've had a couple blasts. I don't know, I don't know why that's the case. Let's go a couple more pieces of news here. Mark uh, warner bros discovery it's gonna rebrand max to hbo max summer.
Speaker 3There we go. So HBO is back, I thought it's so interesting.
Speaker 1Never went anywhere, but just it never went, true. I thought it's interesting how the last two years, so many people in the industry have just been so I don't know what. It is just emotional, I think, is the right word about the rebranding and like, well, this is why they lost subs and it's like guys, this is why they lost subs. And it's like guys, listen, branding that's not why they're gaining or losing subscribers. It's about content, price and bundling. We know that. But it's interesting how many people have an opinion on this. They're very adamant about it.
Speaker 3I think it is good, though I think it is good.
Speaker 1I don't think it's bad, but you know, is this really changing? Which countries they're going to roll out into the next 12 months. No, yeah, exactly. That said, they're still using the HBO brand. You still get press releases from them about HBO is starting a new series, so it would be make sense if it's HBO max.
Speaker 1Yeah, I totally get that. Um, so I I think that makes sense. Let's go to the CEO's quote here In terms of why they're doing this quote. No consumer today is saying they want more content, but better content, that's kind of interesting.
Speaker 3That is very, and that is so true, Like I don't need more content.
Speaker 1And yet remember when Max rolled out the rebranding and they had the, the showcase day and whatnot it was, it was all about Max as in like fat, like this is Mac, like we have this and we have this, and they were just dumping content references nonstop. And then what did they realize with the platform over time? All right, there's certain content, some of the Sesame street stuff and others Okay, that didn't fit who we were targeting. And I think they're absolutely right. It's not about more content.
Speaker 1Now another quote from him. He said quote with the course we are on and strong momentum we are enjoying, we believe HBO Max far better represents our current consumer proposition and you'll like this Mark and it clearly states our implicit promise to deliver content that is recognized as unique and to steal a line we always say at HBO worth paying for. And that is interesting because if you think about HBO years ago Game of Thrones, pick whatever you wanted people paid for it because they felt there was just. You know whoever the third party marketing firm is that's helping them rebrand, they're getting paid three times over over the course of two years, whoever that may be.
Speaker 1But then again, I don't think they use an outside third party marketing firm to decide internally, let's go from Max to HBO Max. Internally, let's go from Max to HBO Max. But it is funny, the memes were flowing after that one, so all they said was the summer.
Speaker 1No exact date here. Let me just double check on that. Yeah, no official date as of yet. Two more things here Sony. So Sony announced during its earnings a crunchy roll of 17 million paying subs. That's up from 15 million. They last reported in August of last year. So great to see the company also said quote amid the anticipated continued growth of the anime market, we plan to accelerate Crunchyroll's growth by deeply embedding it into other Sony products and services and strengthening content development. So one of the things they talked to which was interesting was they didn't feel that they've done everything they can to offer up Crunchyroll to customers who are already taking other Sony products. In particular, on the PlayStation Makes total sense. So we'll see how they market that promote that.
Speaker 1Mark. I got in Crunchyroll maybe about two months ago. They nicely set me up for an account. So thanks, crunchyroll guys. And I started.
Speaker 1Just, I'm not into that content, but I started looking at it. It's a really nice platform. It's quick, it's easy to use, fast startup times, a player loads fast. I just I love it as a, as a example of a niche service in the market that's doing well. Now it's very specific content. They're not doing live sporting events. The encoding for it is different because, again, the type of content, but just another great example of another service in the market that's just different from some of the others and requires a different approach to the market, not only from a video tech stack standpoint, but just in terms of how they bundle this and what they charge and what the cost is more so to produce content than to license it. So just interesting example for our industry.
Speaker 1And then last piece here. So this was confusing some folks. I'll try and explain this a bit more. So Parler Cloud Technologies has decided to exit the commercial CDN space for video downloads and small objects. So for those that remember, they bought some of the assets tied to the Egeo bankruptcy. That's right. I can't remember how long ago that was.
Speaker 3Now, god, that seems like a whole nother lifetime ago Seems like a lifetime ago, but it actually closed like 90 days or something. I mean closed, I mean it's been in the works, done right.
Speaker 1So they've decided actually the commercial space just for video downloads and small objects. They laid off between 15 to 20 employees, but they're reallocating those network assets and resources toward opportunities that combine that edgecast CDM platform with blockchain services, targeting specifically creator centcentric media services. And they said the margins on the CDM business were just too low. So they really want to focus on expanding their growing social media and fintech portfolio, which they already have some of those services under their brand, under the Pulse brand. So that is what they're doing under the Pulse brand. So that is what they're doing. Yes, it's quite a big change in strategy, considering just, you know, a few months ago they were talking about here. We are coming into the market on April 15th with, you know, 10t, I think. I reported a capacity, of which half were they were being used internally for themselves. So really it's not that big of a deal. I've already seen some people Mark, you know, I don't know what it is with the CDN topic making people lose their minds. There goes another provider and there's a shortage of capacity.
Speaker 1Guys, come on, we're talking five T's here, Relax Right, and it wasn't even all up and running, but but that's the latest there on the infrastructure side. More interesting stuff coming in the infrastructure side, Mark. A lot of interesting conversations tied to CDN and other things. There'll be some additional news coming out soon on some of that. I also highlighted this week on LinkedIn the great presentation by Mayer at Fox. A lot of people had not seen that, weren't aware of that, and then also the YouTube tech team. They did a great presentation. I pushed that up with the video as well. You know, interesting, Mark. I just I guess I kind of just always forget people don't read a lot or enough. I mean, the amount of people were like, well, where do I find all the videos? Like, can't you put them all in one place from the NAB show, and I'm just like they're all at nabstreamingsummitcom.
Speaker 1I've promoted it like eight times on LinkedIn. I don't know what else to do, but you want to go check out any of them. They're all up there. I put up the one from Visionler today. Next week I'll put up ESL, because Klov, just his tech expertise is incredible, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2So I'm still highlighting some more.
Speaker 1If you want to see the presentations videos, download the PowerPoints. Nebstreamsummitcom. Just click on 2025.
Speaker 3So I will say, in defense of those who are asking you know where can I go? It is highly unusual for a paid conference to then, within such a short period of time, be able to go back to the website and watch the whole thing for free.
Speaker 1period of time, be able to go back to the website and watch the whole thing for free, you know that is that is.
Speaker 3that is pretty unusual. Usually it's an add on and you know, maybe you have to pay to get access behind a paywall whatever.
Speaker 1So True, but Mark, at this point, people should know.
Speaker 3You have been promoting it and I give out free content.
Speaker 1Yeah, yeah, yeah, that is true, but yeah is. But yeah, I mean it's. It's a valid point and half the people to the summit were were new this year in terms of to the summit. So, yeah, nebstreamingsummitcom also. You can see all the presentations from all previous years there. There's a great one from netflix two years ago talking about how much throughput they were getting out of an individual server and where they thought that would go two years later, like there's some other really great pieces of content from other years. So check it out, it's free. Thank you to CalPOR for giving us their platform, because they're footing the bill for this, since they give us the entire platform for free and all the delivery. But that's where you'll see the good content. So, wrapping up here, just a note to listeners between myself, mark, and our producer, denny, we are all bouncing out in travel over the next three weeks in different places and different countries.
Speaker 2We're in three different continents.
Speaker 1So we don't know when we're getting to the next podcast. We don't know if it'll be in the. It definitely won't be in the next week. You might see a little break here of two to three weeks before we all get back to the States and are in locations where you can actually record again. So, um, don't worry, we will be back.
Speaker 2We might take a little hiatus, we will be back.
Speaker 1That's right. We're not going anywhere. We're not going anywhere, no-transcript, but we will be back, so don't worry Too bad. It wasn't that we were taking an actual break on vacation, but that's not what it is. It's work it never seems to be the case On all sides?
Speaker 1Yeah, on all sides, but we appreciate everyone listening. If you have any questions, hit us up. Everything I talked about today with Mark is on LinkedIn all the stats numbers, that's all up. If you have any questions, reach out. Everyone have a good week, Be safe. Talk to you when we can. Thanks very much.
Speaker 2If you enjoyed the show, send it to a friend. Have questions for dan or mark. Connect with.